Air Lease Corporation (AL)
Air Lease Corporation (AL) is a leading global aircraft leasing firm that specializes in the acquisition and leasing of new commercial jet aircraft to airlines worldwide. Based in Los Angeles, California, the company leverages its extensive industry expertise to provide tailored leasing solutions, facilitating fleet modernization for its airline clients. With a diverse portfolio encompassing a wide range of modern aircraft, Air Lease is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for air travel and the expansion of the airline industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.78% per annum.
- AL price at the close of October 22, 2025 was $63.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.05% per annum.
- AL price at the close of October 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: October 22, 2025
a = 3.2078
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0853
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0853) – 1
= 40.64%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2078 + 0.0004 × 563 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.6308)
= $37.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2078 + 0.0004 × 563 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.2897)
= $26.84
October 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2078 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(4.1966)
= $66.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2078 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.8556)
= $47.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.78% per annum.
- AL price at the close of October 22, 2025 was $63.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2025
End date: October 22, 2025
a = 4.1552
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0010
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0010) – 1
= 0.40%
September 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1552 + 0.0000 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0010)
= Exp(4.1546)
= $63.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1552 + 0.0000 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0010)
= Exp(4.1506)
= $63.47
October 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1552 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0010)
= Exp(4.1545)
= $63.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1552 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0010)
= Exp(4.1505)
= $63.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.05% per annum.
- AL price at the close of October 22, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.