United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc., UAL Corporation, Allegis Corporation and founded originally as UAL, Inc.) is a publicly traded airline holding company headquartered in the Willis Tower in Chicago. UAH owns and operates United Airlines, Inc.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.91% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $51.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $228.43 (81.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.49% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2020
End date: July 2, 2021
a = 2.7390
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1168) – 1
= 59.55%
March 12, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7390 + 0.0017 × 316 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.5141)
= $33.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7390 + 0.0017 × 316 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.0469)
= $21.05
July 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7390 + 0.0017 × 793 + 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(4.3315)
= $76.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7390 + 0.0017 × 793 – 2 × 0.1168)
= Exp(3.8643)
= $47.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.91% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $51.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $228.43 (81.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 3.9216
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1261) – 1
= 65.62%
November 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9216 + -0.0001 × 558 + 2 × 0.1261)
= Exp(4.1196)
= $61.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9216 + -0.0001 × 558 – 2 × 0.1261)
= Exp(3.6151)
= $37.15
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9216 + -0.0001 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.1261)
= Exp(3.9974)
= $54.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9216 + -0.0001 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.1261)
= Exp(3.4928)
= $32.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.49% per annum.
- UAL price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.