Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)
Delta Air Lines, Inc., typically referred to as Delta, is one of the major airlines of the United States and a legacy carrier. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.35% per annum.
- DAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $43.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.79% per annum.
- DAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8095
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.64%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8095 + 0.0006 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.6098)
= $36.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8095 + 0.0006 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.2202)
= $25.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8095 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(4.0543)
= $57.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8095 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.6647)
= $39.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 23.35% per annum.
- DAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $43.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 8.4720
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.76%
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4720 + -0.0026 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.0236)
= $55.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4720 + -0.0026 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(3.9489)
= $51.88
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4720 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(3.8262)
= $45.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4720 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(3.7514)
= $42.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.79% per annum.
- DAL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.