Stock Price Trends

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)

Delta Air Lines, Inc., typically referred to as Delta, is one of the major airlines of the United States and a legacy carrier. It is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.11% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $52.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 551.83% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DAL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024

a = -1.1304

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0188

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 175.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0188) – 1
= 7.81%

January 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1304 + 0.0028 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.6595)
= $38.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1304 + 0.0028 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.5842)
= $36.03

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1304 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.9700)
= $52.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1304 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0188)
= Exp(3.8948)
= $49.14

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 175.11% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $52.20 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024

a = -5.4186

b = 0.0051

s = 0.0111

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 551.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.54%

April 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4186 + 0.0051 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(3.8688)
= $47.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4186 + 0.0051 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(3.8244)
= $45.81

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4186 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(3.9818)
= $53.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4186 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(3.9374)
= $51.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 551.83% per annum.
  • DAL price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.