ADEIA CORP (ADEA)
Adeia Inc., is a global consumer and entertainment products/solutions licensing company. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.91% per annum.
- ADEA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.78 (329.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.22% per annum.
- ADEA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADEA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: September 30, 2022
a = 2.1140
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0520
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.10%
October 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1140 + -0.0007 × 801 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(1.6752)
= $5.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1140 + -0.0007 × 801 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(1.4674)
= $4.34
September 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1140 + -0.0007 × 1,162 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(1.4307)
= $4.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1140 + -0.0007 × 1,162 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(1.2229)
= $3.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.91% per annum.
- ADEA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.78 (329.37%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 4, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.4251
b = 0.0012
s = 0.2374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2374) – 1
= 158.47%
October 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4251 + 0.0012 × 801 + 2 × 0.2374)
= Exp(1.8647)
= $6.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y552)
= Exp(a + b × X552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4251 + 0.0012 × 801 – 2 × 0.2374)
= Exp(0.9151)
= $2.50
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4251 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2374)
= Exp(3.0994)
= $22.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4251 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2374)
= Exp(2.1498)
= $8.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.22% per annum.
- ADEA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.