Gartner Inc (IT)
Gartner, Inc, officially known as Gartner, is a global research and advisory firm providing information, advice, and tools for leaders in IT, finance, HR, customer service and support, communications, legal and compliance, marketing, sales, and supply chain functions. Its headquarters are in Stamford, Connecticut, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- IT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $434.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.22 (0.75%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.74% per annum.
- IT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2021
End date: November 2, 2023
a = 5.4261
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0922
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0922) – 1
= 44.60%
June 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4261 + 0.0002 × 774 + 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.8036)
= $331.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4261 + 0.0002 × 774 – 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.4349)
= $229.26
November 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4261 + 0.0002 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(6.0193)
= $411.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4261 + 0.0002 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0922)
= Exp(5.6505)
= $284.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.54% per annum.
- IT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $434.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.22 (0.75%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.6464
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0776
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0776) – 1
= 36.39%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y754)
= Exp(a + b × X754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,092 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6464 + 0.0008 × 1,092 + 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(5.6936)
= $296.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y754)
= Exp(a + b × X754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,092 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6464 + 0.0008 × 1,092 – 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(5.3833)
= $217.74
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6464 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(6.2933)
= $540.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6464 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(5.9829)
= $396.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.74% per annum.
- IT price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.