Stock Price Trends

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp Class A (CTSH)

Cognizant is an American multinational technology company that provides business consulting, information technology and outsourcing services. It is headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.15% per annum.
  • CTSH price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $67.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.84% per annum.
  • CTSH price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTSH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 9.6322

b = -0.0030

s = 0.0108

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0108) – 1
= 4.42%

February 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6322 + -0.0030 × 1,767 + 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.4102)
= $82.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6322 + -0.0030 × 1,767 – 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.3669)
= $78.80

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6322 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.2410)
= $69.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6322 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0108)
= Exp(4.1978)
= $66.54

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.15% per annum.
  • CTSH price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $67.44 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 13.3140

b = -0.0050

s = 0.0078

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0078) – 1
= 3.15%

April 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3140 + -0.0050 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0078)
= Exp(4.2919)
= $73.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3140 + -0.0050 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0078)
= Exp(4.2609)
= $70.87

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3140 + -0.0050 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0078)
= Exp(4.2220)
= $68.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.3140 + -0.0050 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0078)
= Exp(4.1910)
= $66.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 83.84% per annum.
  • CTSH price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.