Charles River Laboratories (CRL)
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc., is an American pharmaceutical company specializing in a variety of preclinical and clinical laboratory, gene therapy and cell therapy services for the Pharmaceutical, Medical device and Biotechnology industries. It also supplies assorted biomedical products and outsourcing services for research and development in the pharmaceutical industry and offer support in the fields of basic research, drug discovery, safety and efficacy, clinical support, and manufacturing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
- CRL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $228.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.38 (16.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.60% per annum.
- CRL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 6.5675
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1354
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1354) – 1
= 71.89%
April 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y477)
= Exp(a + b × X477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5675 + -0.0009 × 693 + 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(6.2451)
= $515.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y477)
= Exp(a + b × X477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5675 + -0.0009 × 693 – 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(5.7034)
= $299.88
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5675 + -0.0009 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(5.4086)
= $223.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5675 + -0.0009 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.1354)
= Exp(4.8670)
= $129.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.84% per annum.
- CRL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $228.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $32.38 (16.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 5.3497
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0988
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0988) – 1
= 48.45%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3497 + 0.0000 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.0988)
= Exp(5.5650)
= $261.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y753)
= Exp(a + b × X753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3497 + 0.0000 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.0988)
= Exp(5.1700)
= $175.91
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3497 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0988)
= Exp(5.5771)
= $264.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3497 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0988)
= Exp(5.1820)
= $178.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.60% per annum.
- CRL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.