Azenta Inc (AZTA)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.32% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $60.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.31 (28.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.60% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.40 (6.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AZTA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 5.1698
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1709
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1709) – 1
= 98.11%
January 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y370)
= Exp(a + b × X370 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1698 + -0.0009 × 535 + 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(5.0237)
= $151.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y370)
= Exp(a + b × X370 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1698 + -0.0009 × 535 – 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(4.3401)
= $76.71
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1698 + -0.0009 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(4.0816)
= $59.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1698 + -0.0009 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.1709)
= Exp(3.3980)
= $29.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.32% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $60.22 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.31 (28.38%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2023
End date: April 3, 2024
a = 2.1719
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0740
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.47%
February 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1719 + 0.0012 × 1,291 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.8379)
= $46.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1719 + 0.0012 × 1,291 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.5418)
= $34.53
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1719 + 0.0012 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(4.3306)
= $75.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1719 + 0.0012 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(4.0344)
= $56.51
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.60% per annum.
- AZTA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.40 (6.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.