Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)
Thermo Fisher Scientific is an American provisioner of scientific instrumentation, reagents and consumables, and software and services to healthcare, life science, and other laboratories in academia, government, and industry (including in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors). Based in Waltham, Massachusetts, Thermo Fisher was created in 2006 by the merger of Thermo Electron and Fisher Scientific, to form a company with US$ 9 billion in combined revenues.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.71% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $568.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.77 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.79% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $30.27 (5.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2021
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 6.5137
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.31%
July 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5137 + -0.0002 × 821 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.5022)
= $666.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y567)
= Exp(a + b × X567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5137 + -0.0002 × 821 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.2607)
= $523.60
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5137 + -0.0002 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.3514)
= $573.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5137 + -0.0002 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.1099)
= $450.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.71% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $568.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.77 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: March 28, 2024
a = 3.3047
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0310
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3047 + 0.0017 × 1,625 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(6.1722)
= $479.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3047 + 0.0017 × 1,625 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(6.0482)
= $423.36
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3047 + 0.0017 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(6.4623)
= $640.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3047 + 0.0017 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(6.3383)
= $565.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.79% per annum.
- TMO price at the close of April 30, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $30.27 (5.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.