Mettler-Toledo International Inc (MTD)
Mettler Toledo (NYSE: MTD) is a multinational manufacturer of scales and analytical instruments. It is the largest provider of weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, and food retailing applications. The company also provides various analytical instruments, process analytics instruments, and end-of-line inspection systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.53% per annum.
- MTD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $1,510.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $65.32 (4.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.88% per annum.
- MTD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $44.97 (3.07%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2021
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 7.4691
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0991
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0991) – 1
= 48.64%
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y525)
= Exp(a + b × X525 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4691 + -0.0002 × 760 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(7.5042)
= $1,815.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y525)
= Exp(a + b × X525 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4691 + -0.0002 × 760 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(7.1078)
= $1,221.48
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4691 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(7.2760)
= $1,445.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4691 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0991)
= Exp(6.8797)
= $972.31
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.53% per annum.
- MTD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $1,510.25 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $65.32 (4.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 5.0442
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.16%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0442 + 0.0012 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(7.0288)
= $1,128.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0442 + 0.0012 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(6.8452)
= $939.36
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0442 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(7.2898)
= $1,465.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0442 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(7.1062)
= $1,219.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.88% per annum.
- MTD price at the close of May 10, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $44.97 (3.07%).