Waters Corporation (WAT)
Waters Corporation is a publicly traded Analytical Laboratory instrument and software company headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.42% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $351.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $58.49 (19.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 6.1934
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0740
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.46%
May 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 743 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(6.0716)
= $433.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 743 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.7755)
= $322.29
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.7348)
= $309.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.4387)
= $230.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.42% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $351.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $58.49 (19.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 4.3739
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0668
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0668) – 1
= 30.62%
May 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,458 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.6605)
= $287.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,458 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.3934)
= $219.94
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.9500)
= $383.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.6828)
= $293.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.