Waters Corporation (WAT)
Waters Corporation is a publicly traded Analytical Laboratory instrument and software company headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $310.29 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.26 (8.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.03% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.53 (1.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 24, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 6.1644
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0743
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0743) – 1
= 34.59%
May 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1644 + -0.0004 × 668 + 2 × 0.0743)
= Exp(6.0714)
= $433.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1644 + -0.0004 × 668 – 2 × 0.0743)
= Exp(5.7743)
= $321.93
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1644 + -0.0004 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0743)
= Exp(5.7358)
= $309.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1644 + -0.0004 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0743)
= Exp(5.4387)
= $230.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.37% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $310.29 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.26 (8.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2023
End date: May 29, 2024
a = 4.4158
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.25%
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4158 + 0.0008 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.6576)
= $286.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4158 + 0.0008 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.3934)
= $219.94
May 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4158 + 0.0008 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.9674)
= $390.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4158 + 0.0008 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(5.7031)
= $299.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.03% per annum.
- WAT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.53 (1.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.