Stock Price Trends

Waters Corporation (WAT)

Waters Corporation is a publicly traded Analytical Laboratory instrument and software company headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.42% per annum.
  • WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $351.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $58.49 (19.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
  • WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023

a = 6.1934

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0740

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.46%

May 25, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 743 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(6.0716)
= $433.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y513)
= Exp(a + b × X513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 743 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.7755)
= $322.29

December 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.7348)
= $309.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1934 + -0.0004 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(5.4387)
= $230.14

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.42% per annum.
  • WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $351.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $58.49 (19.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 10, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024

a = 4.3739

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0668

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0668) – 1
= 30.62%

May 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,458 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.6605)
= $287.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,006)
= Exp(a + b × X1,006 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,458 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.3934)
= $219.94

May 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.9500)
= $383.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3739 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0668)
= Exp(5.6828)
= $293.78

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
  • WAT price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.