Stock Price Trends

Illumina Inc (ILMN)

Illumina, Inc. is an American company. Incorporated on April 1, 1998, Illumina develops, manufactures, and markets integrated systems for the analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The company provides a line of products and services that serves the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression, and proteomics markets. Its headquarters are located in San Diego, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
  • ILMN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $122.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 51.33% per annum.
  • ILMN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ILMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2021
End date: April 26, 2024

a = 7.0198

b = -0.0012

s = 0.1515

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1515) – 1
= 83.32%

January 27, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y441)
= Exp(a + b × X441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0198 + -0.0012 × 639 + 2 × 0.1515)
= Exp(6.5307)
= $685.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y441)
= Exp(a + b × X441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0198 + -0.0012 × 639 – 2 × 0.1515)
= Exp(5.9247)
= $374.15

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0198 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1515)
= Exp(5.0617)
= $157.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0198 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1515)
= Exp(4.4557)
= $86.11

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.39% per annum.
  • ILMN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $122.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 18, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024

a = 2.8737

b = 0.0011

s = 0.1031

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1031) – 1
= 51.07%

October 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8737 + 0.0011 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.9335)
= $138.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8737 + 0.0011 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.5210)
= $91.93

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8737 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(5.1503)
= $172.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8737 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1031)
= Exp(4.7378)
= $114.18

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 51.33% per annum.
  • ILMN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.