IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV)
IQVIA, formerly Quintiles and IMS Health, Inc., is an American multinational company serving the combined industries of health information technology and clinical research. It is a provider of biopharmaceutical development and commercial outsourcing services, focused primarily on Phase I-IV clinical trials and associated laboratory and analytical services, including consulting services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.01% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $239.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $24.87 (11.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.12% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IQV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 5.6918
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0748
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0748) – 1
= 34.87%
April 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6918 + -0.0003 × 631 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(5.6782)
= $292.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6918 + -0.0003 × 631 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(5.3791)
= $216.82
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6918 + -0.0003 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(5.4294)
= $228.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6918 + -0.0003 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(5.1303)
= $169.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.01% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $239.67 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $24.87 (11.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.0459
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0715
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0715) – 1
= 33.09%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0459 + 0.0002 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(5.4331)
= $228.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0459 + 0.0002 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(5.1472)
= $171.94
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0459 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(5.5789)
= $264.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0459 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0715)
= Exp(5.2930)
= $198.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.12% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.