IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV)
IQVIA, formerly Quintiles and IMS Health, Inc., is an American multinational company serving the combined industries of health information technology and clinical research. It is a provider of biopharmaceutical development and commercial outsourcing services, focused primarily on Phase I-IV clinical trials and associated laboratory and analytical services, including consulting services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.02% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $229.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.07 (4.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IQV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: December 11, 2023
a = 5.7134
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0747
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0747) – 1
= 34.80%
April 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y490)
= Exp(a + b × X490 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7134 + -0.0003 × 712 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.6783)
= $292.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y490)
= Exp(a + b × X490 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7134 + -0.0003 × 712 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.3797)
= $216.95
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7134 + -0.0003 × 1,676 + 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.4285)
= $227.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7134 + -0.0003 × 1,676 – 2 × 0.0747)
= Exp(5.1299)
= $169.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.02% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $229.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.07 (4.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2022
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.9699
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0732
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0732) – 1
= 34.03%
September 14, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9699 + 0.0003 × 1,223 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.4278)
= $227.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9699 + 0.0003 × 1,223 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.1348)
= $169.84
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9699 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.5813)
= $265.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9699 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0732)
= Exp(5.2884)
= $198.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.74% per annum.
- IQV price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.