Cerence Inc (CRNC)
Cerence Inc. provides assistants and innovations with artificial intelligence technology for connected and autonomous vehicles. Offers state-of-the-art software components; components connected to the cloud; tool kits; Applications; and virtual assistant for coexistence and professional services. The company is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.77% per annum.
- CRNC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $9.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.30 (31.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.47% per annum.
- CRNC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.43 (13.01%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 20, 2020
End date: January 25, 2023
a = 6.3909
b = -0.0029
s = 0.2863
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2863) – 1
= 214.32%
November 20, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3909 + -0.0029 × 431 + 2 × 0.2863)
= Exp(5.6975)
= $298.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3909 + -0.0029 × 431 – 2 × 0.2863)
= Exp(4.5523)
= $94.85
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3909 + -0.0029 × 1,227 + 2 × 0.2863)
= Exp(3.3595)
= $28.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y846)
= Exp(a + b × X846 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3909 + -0.0029 × 1,227 – 2 × 0.2863)
= Exp(2.2142)
= $9.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.77% per annum.
- CRNC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $9.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.30 (31.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 3.9575
b = -0.0007
s = 0.2189
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2189) – 1
= 140.06%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9575 + -0.0007 × 885 + 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(3.8095)
= $45.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9575 + -0.0007 × 885 – 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(2.9338)
= $18.80
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9575 + -0.0007 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(3.2899)
= $26.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9575 + -0.0007 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.2189)
= Exp(2.4142)
= $11.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.47% per annum.
- CRNC price at the close of May 8, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.43 (13.01%).