CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)
CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a publicly traded, self-managed real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, acquisition, development, and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing, and other healthcare-related properties.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.87% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.67% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.7914
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.45%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,319 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(2.9085)
= $18.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,319 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(2.7823)
= $16.16
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.3120)
= $27.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.1859)
= $24.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.87% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.0733
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.05%
January 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.1058)
= $22.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.0010)
= $20.10
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.3374)
= $28.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.2326)
= $25.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.67% per annum.
- CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.