Stock Price Trends

CareTrust REIT Inc. (CTRE)

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a publicly traded, self-managed real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership, acquisition, development, and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing, and other healthcare-related properties.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.87% per annum.
  • CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.67% per annum.
  • CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CTRE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.7914

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0315

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.45%

March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,319 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(2.9085)
= $18.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,319 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(2.7823)
= $16.16

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.3120)
= $27.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7914 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(3.1859)
= $24.19

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.87% per annum.
  • CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.54 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.0733

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0262

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.05%

January 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.1058)
= $22.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.0010)
= $20.10

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.3374)
= $28.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0733 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(3.2326)
= $25.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 55.67% per annum.
  • CTRE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.