Ventas Inc (VTR)
Ventas, Inc. is a real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership and management of health care facilities in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.75% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $53.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.44% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 0.2167
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.93%
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2167 + 0.0021 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.7550)
= $42.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2167 + 0.0021 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6695)
= $39.23
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2167 + 0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(4.0322)
= $56.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2167 + 0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.9467)
= $51.76
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.75% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $53.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 0.8411
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0128
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0128) – 1
= 5.27%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8411 + 0.0017 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0128)
= Exp(3.8620)
= $47.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8411 + 0.0017 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0128)
= Exp(3.8106)
= $45.18
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8411 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0128)
= Exp(4.0066)
= $54.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8411 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0128)
= Exp(3.9552)
= $52.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 87.44% per annum.
- VTR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.