Stock Price Trends

Omega Healthcare Investors Inc (OHI)

Omega is a real estate investment trust that invests in the long-term healthcare industry, primarily skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.94% per annum.
  • OHI price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $42.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 168.18% per annum.
  • OHI price at the close of September 12, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OHI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 7, 2022
End date: September 12, 2025

a = 2.6044

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0650

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0650) – 1
= 29.71%

December 7, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y562)
= Exp(a + b × X562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6044 + 0.0006 × 813 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(3.2305)
= $25.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y562)
= Exp(a + b × X562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6044 + 0.0006 × 813 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(2.9703)
= $19.50

September 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6044 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(3.8467)
= $46.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6044 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(3.5866)
= $36.11

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.94% per annum.
  • OHI price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $42.48 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 25, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025

a = -1.1482

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0137

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 168.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0137) – 1
= 5.64%

June 25, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1482 + 0.0027 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.5928)
= $36.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1482 + 0.0027 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.5379)
= $34.40

September 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1482 + 0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.8063)
= $44.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1482 + 0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0137)
= Exp(3.7515)
= $42.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 168.18% per annum.
  • OHI price at the close of September 12, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.