LTC Properties Inc (LTC)
LTC is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in senior housing and healthcare properties primarily through back-lease sales, mortgage financing, joint ventures, and structured finance solutions including preferred equity and mezzanine loans. .
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.79% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.53 (1.44%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 796.16% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.6872
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.23%
January 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6872 + 0.0010 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(3.4355)
= $31.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,136)
= Exp(a + b × X1,136 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6872 + 0.0010 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(3.3472)
= $28.42
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6872 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(3.6173)
= $37.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6872 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(3.5289)
= $34.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.79% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.53 (1.44%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -7.3365
b = 0.0060
s = 0.0080
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 796.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0080) – 1
= 3.27%
July 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3365 + 0.0060 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.5482)
= $34.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3365 + 0.0060 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.5161)
= $33.65
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3365 + 0.0060 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.6504)
= $38.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.3365 + 0.0060 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.6182)
= $37.27
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 796.16% per annum.
- LTC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.