Stock Price Trends

Healthcare Realty Trust Incorporated (HR)

Healthcare Realty Trust is a real estate investment trust that integrates the ownership, management, financing, and development of income-generating real estate primarily associated with the provision of outpatient healthcare services throughout the United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.25% per annum.
  • HR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $15.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.70% per annum.
  • HR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 1.9261

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0746

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.25%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0746) – 1
= 34.78%

September 19, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9261 + 0.0005 × 1,237 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.7285)
= $15.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9261 + 0.0005 × 1,237 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.4300)
= $11.36

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9261 + 0.0005 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.0252)
= $20.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9261 + 0.0005 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.7267)
= $15.28

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.25% per annum.
  • HR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $15.38 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.11 (0.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.2381

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0297

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.60%

July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2381 + -0.0002 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(2.9147)
= $18.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2381 + -0.0002 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(2.7960)
= $16.38

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2381 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(2.8421)
= $17.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2381 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(2.7234)
= $15.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.70% per annum.
  • HR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.