Medical Properties Trust Inc (MPW)
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. is a self-advised real estate investment trust formed in 2003 to acquire and develop net-leased hospital facilities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.31% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $5.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.01 (24.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 269.97% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.18 (3.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2021
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.5326
b = -0.0019
s = 0.1492
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1492) – 1
= 81.64%
October 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5326 + -0.0019 × 817 + 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(3.3102)
= $27.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y564)
= Exp(a + b × X564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5326 + -0.0019 × 817 – 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(2.7134)
= $15.08
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5326 + -0.0019 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(1.5995)
= $4.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5326 + -0.0019 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.1492)
= Exp(1.0027)
= $2.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.31% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $5.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.01 (24.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2024
End date: June 14, 2024
a = -4.7257
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0680
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 269.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0680) – 1
= 31.24%
January 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7257 + 0.0036 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(1.2311)
= $3.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7257 + 0.0036 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(0.9592)
= $2.61
June 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7257 + 0.0036 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(1.8081)
= $6.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.7257 + 0.0036 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(1.5363)
= $4.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 269.97% per annum.
- MPW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.18 (3.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.