Exelixis Inc (EXEL)
Exelixis, Inc., an oncology-focused biotechnology company, is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new drugs to treat cancers in the United States. The company is headquartered in Alameda, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.08% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $21.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.80 (7.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.87% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXEL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: January 26, 2024
a = 1.7646
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0397
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0397) – 1
= 17.19%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7646 + 0.0008 × 1,229 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(2.8314)
= $16.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y847)
= Exp(a + b × X847 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7646 + 0.0008 × 1,229 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(2.6727)
= $14.48
January 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7646 + 0.0008 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.2283)
= $25.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7646 + 0.0008 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0397)
= Exp(3.0697)
= $21.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.08% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $21.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.80 (7.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 2.6580
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.83%
August 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6580 + 0.0003 × 1,552 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(3.1447)
= $23.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,069)
= Exp(a + b × X1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,552 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6580 + 0.0003 × 1,552 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(2.9722)
= $19.53
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6580 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(3.2153)
= $24.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6580 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(3.0428)
= $20.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.87% per annum.
- EXEL price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.