Harmony Biosciences Holdings (HRMY)
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, develops and markets therapies for patients with rare neurological disorders. The company is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.77% per annum.
- HRMY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $31.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.90% per annum.
- HRMY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRMY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2022
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 4.7043
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1444) – 1
= 78.21%
June 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7043 + -0.0010 × 672 + 2 × 0.1444)
= Exp(4.2895)
= $72.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y463)
= Exp(a + b × X463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7043 + -0.0010 × 672 – 2 × 0.1444)
= Exp(3.7117)
= $40.92
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7043 + -0.0010 × 1,351 + 2 × 0.1444)
= Exp(3.5785)
= $35.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7043 + -0.0010 × 1,351 – 2 × 0.1444)
= Exp(3.0007)
= $20.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.77% per annum.
- HRMY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $31.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 13, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 1.6912
b = 0.0014
s = 0.1129
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 63.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1129) – 1
= 57.08%
October 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6912 + 0.0014 × 1,150 + 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(3.4737)
= $32.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6912 + 0.0014 × 1,150 – 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(3.0221)
= $20.53
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6912 + 0.0014 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(3.7553)
= $42.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6912 + 0.0014 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.1129)
= Exp(3.3037)
= $27.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.90% per annum.
- HRMY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.