Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD)
Gilead Sciences, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Foster City, California, that focuses on researching and developing antiviral drugs used in the treatment of HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and influenza, including Harvoni and Sovaldi.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.22% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $65.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.02% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GILD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 7, 2022
End date: October 12, 2023
a = 4.8245
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.78%
November 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8245 + -0.0003 × 1,288 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.4559)
= $86.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8245 + -0.0003 × 1,288 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.3535)
= $77.75
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8245 + -0.0003 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.3454)
= $77.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,123)
= Exp(a + b × X1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8245 + -0.0003 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.2430)
= $69.62
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.22% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $65.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 9.5809
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.58%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5809 + -0.0030 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.3448)
= $77.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5809 + -0.0030 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.3001)
= $73.70
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5809 + -0.0030 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.2088)
= $67.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5809 + -0.0030 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.1640)
= $64.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 66.02% per annum.
- GILD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.