United Therapeutics Corporation (UTHR)
United Therapeutics Corporation, a biotechnology company, is dedicated to the development and commercialization of products to address the unmet medical needs of patients with chronic and life-threatening diseases in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.43% per annum.
- UTHR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $261.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.78% per annum.
- UTHR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.38 (3.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UTHR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2021
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.0993
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0883
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0883) – 1
= 42.37%
April 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0993 + 0.0002 × 693 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(5.4296)
= $228.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y478)
= Exp(a + b × X478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0993 + 0.0002 × 693 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(5.0763)
= $160.18
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0993 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(5.6808)
= $293.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0993 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(5.3276)
= $205.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.43% per annum.
- UTHR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $261.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2022
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.8044
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0665
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0665) – 1
= 30.45%
November 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8044 + -0.0002 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.6549)
= $285.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8044 + -0.0002 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.3891)
= $219.01
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8044 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.5323)
= $252.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8044 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(5.2665)
= $193.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.78% per annum.
- UTHR price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.38 (3.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.