Incyte Corporation (INCY)
Incyte Corp is an American pharmaceutical company based in Alapocas, Delaware.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.84% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $68.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,067.02% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.27 (0.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: June 27, 2024
a = -0.9516
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0197
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0197) – 1
= 8.18%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9516 + 0.0028 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(3.9761)
= $53.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9516 + 0.0028 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(3.8975)
= $49.28
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9516 + 0.0028 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(4.1834)
= $65.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9516 + 0.0028 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0197)
= Exp(4.1047)
= $60.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 181.84% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $68.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 3, 2024
End date: July 19, 2024
a = -13.0064
b = 0.0095
s = 0.0144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0095) – 1
= 3,067.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0144) – 1
= 5.91%
July 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0064 + 0.0095 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.0721)
= $58.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0064 + 0.0095 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.0146)
= $55.40
July 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0064 + 0.0095 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.2235)
= $68.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0064 + 0.0095 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(4.1661)
= $64.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3,067.02% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.27 (0.39%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.