Incyte Corporation (INCY)
Incyte Corp is an American pharmaceutical company based in Alapocas, Delaware.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.86% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $54.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.11 (8.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.58% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of INCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: December 11, 2023
a = 5.8860
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0495
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0495) – 1
= 21.91%
November 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8860 + -0.0011 × 1,273 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.5434)
= $94.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y879)
= Exp(a + b × X879 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8860 + -0.0011 × 1,273 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.3453)
= $77.12
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8860 + -0.0011 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(4.0848)
= $59.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8860 + -0.0011 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0495)
= Exp(3.8867)
= $48.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.86% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $54.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.11 (8.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: April 16, 2024
a = 4.6449
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0550
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0550) – 1
= 24.62%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6449 + -0.0003 × 1,456 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.2641)
= $71.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,004)
= Exp(a + b × X1,004 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6449 + -0.0003 × 1,456 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.0441)
= $57.06
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6449 + -0.0003 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(4.1465)
= $63.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6449 + -0.0003 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0550)
= Exp(3.9264)
= $50.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.58% per annum.
- INCY price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.