Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc (CPRX)
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies for people with rare debilitating, neuromuscular, and chronic neurological diseases in the United States. The company is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.24% per annum.
- CPRX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $15.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.29% per annum.
- CPRX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPRX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 2.7720
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1253
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1253) – 1
= 65.06%
August 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7720 + -0.0001 × 1,190 + 2 × 0.1253)
= Exp(2.9486)
= $19.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7720 + -0.0001 × 1,190 – 2 × 0.1253)
= Exp(2.4474)
= $11.56
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7720 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1253)
= Exp(2.9090)
= $18.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7720 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1253)
= Exp(2.4079)
= $11.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.24% per annum.
- CPRX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $15.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 16, 2023
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 1.4698
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 31.97%
May 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4698 + 0.0007 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.6424)
= $14.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4698 + 0.0007 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.3650)
= $10.64
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4698 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.8937)
= $18.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4698 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(2.6163)
= $13.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.29% per annum.
- CPRX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.