Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX)
Dynavax Technologies Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel vaccines in the United States. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.51% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $11.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.10% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 3.9524
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0379
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0379) – 1
= 16.39%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + -0.0008 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.7794)
= $16.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + -0.0008 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.6276)
= $13.84
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.5551)
= $12.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9524 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0379)
= Exp(2.4033)
= $11.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.51% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $11.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 5.5186
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.63%
December 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5186 + -0.0017 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.7089)
= $15.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5186 + -0.0017 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.5988)
= $13.45
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5186 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.4820)
= $11.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5186 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(2.3720)
= $10.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 46.10% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.