Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX)
Dynavax Technologies Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel vaccines in the United States. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.91% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.21% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DVAX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.6154
b = -0.0001
s = 0.1491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1491) – 1
= 81.59%
August 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6154 + -0.0001 × 466 + 2 × 0.1491)
= Exp(2.8759)
= $17.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6154 + -0.0001 × 466 – 2 × 0.1491)
= Exp(2.2793)
= $9.77
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6154 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1491)
= Exp(2.7659)
= $15.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6154 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1491)
= Exp(2.1693)
= $8.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.91% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 13.4897
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.92%
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4897 + -0.0061 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(2.7807)
= $16.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4897 + -0.0061 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(2.6074)
= $13.56
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4897 + -0.0061 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(2.4453)
= $11.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.4897 + -0.0061 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(2.2720)
= $9.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.21% per annum.
- DVAX price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.