Repligen Corporation (RGEN)
Repligen Corporation develops and markets bioprocessing systems and technologies for use in the biologic drug manufacturing process in North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.65% per annum.
- RGEN price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $167.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.43% per annum.
- RGEN price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2020
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 5.5380
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1573
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1573) – 1
= 87.60%
November 4, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5380 + -0.0002 × 546 + 2 × 0.1573)
= Exp(5.7171)
= $304.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y378)
= Exp(a + b × X378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5380 + -0.0002 × 546 – 2 × 0.1573)
= Exp(5.0880)
= $162.06
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5380 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1573)
= Exp(5.3997)
= $221.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5380 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1573)
= Exp(4.7705)
= $117.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.65% per annum.
- RGEN price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $167.72 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 10.2569
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0333
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0333) – 1
= 14.23%
February 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2569 + -0.0028 × 1,735 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(5.4100)
= $223.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,735 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2569 + -0.0028 × 1,735 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(5.2770)
= $195.77
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2569 + -0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(5.1523)
= $172.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2569 + -0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(5.0192)
= $151.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.43% per annum.
- RGEN price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.