Cytokinetics Inc (CYTK)
Cytokinetics, Incorporated, an advanced stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering, developing and commercializing muscle activators and inhibitors as potential treatments for debilitating diseases. The company is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.88% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $65.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CYTK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 27, 2023
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 8.8333
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0636
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0636) – 1
= 28.97%
December 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8333 + -0.0026 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.6074)
= $100.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8333 + -0.0026 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.3531)
= $77.72
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8333 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.2655)
= $71.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8333 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0636)
= Exp(4.0111)
= $55.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 60.88% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $65.27 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 4.7013
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.85%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7013 + -0.0003 × 1,761 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.3192)
= $75.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,761 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7013 + -0.0003 × 1,761 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.1216)
= $61.66
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7013 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.3015)
= $73.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7013 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.1038)
= $60.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- CYTK price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.