Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) is a leading biopharmaceutical company headquartered in San Diego, California, specializing in the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapies for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric conditions. With a robust pipeline that includes treatments for serious disorders such as Parkinson's disease and epilepsy, Neurocrine is positioned at the forefront of addressing unmet medical needs. The company's commitment to advancing science and improving patient outcomes through targeted research and strategic partnerships underscores its potential for growth and impact in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.62% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $136.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.30 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.41% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NBIX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: December 16, 2025
a = 2.6483
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0546
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0546) – 1
= 24.43%
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6483 + 0.0013 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.7690)
= $117.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6483 + 0.0013 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.5504)
= $94.67
December 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6483 + 0.0013 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(5.1575)
= $173.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6483 + 0.0013 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0546)
= Exp(4.9389)
= $139.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.62% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $136.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.30 (8.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 26, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 9.8968
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0225
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0225) – 1
= 9.40%
November 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8968 + -0.0028 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(5.0966)
= $163.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8968 + -0.0028 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(5.0067)
= $149.41
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8968 + -0.0028 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.9230)
= $137.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.8968 + -0.0028 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0225)
= Exp(4.8332)
= $125.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.41% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of January 30, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.