Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceutical products for the treatment of neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric diseases and disorders in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.48% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $146.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.62 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.68% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (0.19%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NBIX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: May 28, 2024
a = 2.8331
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0422
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.41%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8331 + 0.0012 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.6067)
= $100.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8331 + 0.0012 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.4378)
= $84.58
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8331 + 0.0012 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(5.0864)
= $161.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8331 + 0.0012 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(4.9174)
= $136.64
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.48% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $146.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.62 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 4.7490
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.06%
December 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7490 + 0.0001 × 1,614 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.9614)
= $142.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,614 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7490 + 0.0001 × 1,614 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.8565)
= $128.57
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7490 + 0.0001 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.9808)
= $145.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7490 + 0.0001 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(4.8759)
= $131.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.68% per annum.
- NBIX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (0.19%).