Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.77% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $492.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.45% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.6999
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0652
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0652) – 1
= 29.78%
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0008 × 686 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(5.3771)
= $216.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y473)
= Exp(a + b × X473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0008 × 686 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(5.1164)
= $166.74
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(6.2859)
= $536.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6999 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(6.0252)
= $413.73
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.77% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $492.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.8845
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0287
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 138.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.17%
April 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8845 + 0.0024 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.0321)
= $416.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,182)
= Exp(a + b × X1,182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8845 + 0.0024 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(5.9173)
= $371.39
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8845 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.2892)
= $538.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8845 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(6.1744)
= $480.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 138.45% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.