Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is an American biopharmaceutical company based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.97% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $410.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.26% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.49 (0.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2021
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 4.6326
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0657
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0657) – 1
= 30.08%
June 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6326 + 0.0008 × 765 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.3771)
= $216.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y528)
= Exp(a + b × X528 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6326 + 0.0008 × 765 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.1141)
= $166.35
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6326 + 0.0008 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(6.2048)
= $495.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6326 + 0.0008 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.9418)
= $380.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.97% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $410.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2024
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 7.5719
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0144
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0144) – 1
= 5.93%
January 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5719 + -0.0009 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(6.1102)
= $450.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5719 + -0.0009 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(6.0526)
= $425.22
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5719 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(6.0091)
= $407.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5719 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0144)
= Exp(5.9514)
= $384.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.26% per annum.
- VRTX price at the close of May 7, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.49 (0.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.