Moderna Inc (MRNA)
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops messenger RNA-based vaccines and therapies for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and autoimmune diseases. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $125.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.93% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MRNA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2021
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 6.5553
b = -0.0012
s = 0.2293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2293) – 1
= 150.27%
June 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y526)
= Exp(a + b × X526 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5553 + -0.0012 × 763 + 2 × 0.2293)
= Exp(6.1211)
= $455.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y526)
= Exp(a + b × X526 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5553 + -0.0012 × 763 – 2 × 0.2293)
= Exp(5.2037)
= $181.94
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5553 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.2293)
= Exp(4.8782)
= $131.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5553 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.2293)
= Exp(3.9608)
= $52.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.76% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of May 2, 2024 was $125.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 1.0231
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0828
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.26%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0231 + 0.0020 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.5005)
= $90.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0231 + 0.0020 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.1694)
= $64.68
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0231 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.8988)
= $134.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0231 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.5676)
= $96.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 109.93% per annum.
- MRNA price at the close of May 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.