Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.59% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROIV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.2772
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0777
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0777) – 1
= 36.47%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2772 + 0.0001 × 613 + 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(2.5018)
= $12.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y421)
= Exp(a + b × X421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2772 + 0.0001 × 613 – 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(2.1909)
= $8.94
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2772 + 0.0001 × 1,306 + 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(2.5799)
= $13.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2772 + 0.0001 × 1,306 – 2 × 0.0777)
= Exp(2.2690)
= $9.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.20% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.2925
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.92%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2925 + -0.0007 × 1,057 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(2.5959)
= $13.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2925 + -0.0007 × 1,057 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(2.4310)
= $11.37
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2925 + -0.0007 × 1,306 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(2.4123)
= $11.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2925 + -0.0007 × 1,306 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(2.2475)
= $9.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.59% per annum.
- ROIV price at the close of April 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.13 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.