Amgen Inc (AMGN)
Amgen Inc. (formerly Applied Molecular Genetics Inc.) is an American multinational biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California. Focused on molecular biology and biochemistry, its goal is to provide a healthcare business based on recombinant DNA technology.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.25% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $334.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 104.93% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.3994
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.10%
February 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3994 + 0.0007 × 1,301 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(5.4807)
= $240.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3994 + 0.0007 × 1,301 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(5.2568)
= $191.87
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3994 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(5.8719)
= $354.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3994 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(5.6480)
= $283.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.25% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $334.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.2252
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 104.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.27%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2252 + 0.0020 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.6617)
= $287.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2252 + 0.0020 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.5196)
= $249.54
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2252 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.8858)
= $359.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2252 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(5.7437)
= $312.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 104.93% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.