Amgen Inc (AMGN)
Amgen Inc. (formerly Applied Molecular Genetics Inc.) is an American multinational biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Thousand Oaks, California. Focused on molecular biology and biochemistry, its goal is to provide a healthcare business based on recombinant DNA technology.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.92% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $269.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMGN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 8.2039
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0274
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0274) – 1
= 11.60%
January 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2039 + -0.0014 × 1,711 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.7916)
= $327.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2039 + -0.0014 × 1,711 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.6819)
= $293.52
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2039 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.6287)
= $278.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2039 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(5.5190)
= $249.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.92% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $269.98 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 6.6634
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.13%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6634 + -0.0006 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.6628)
= $287.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6634 + -0.0006 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.5940)
= $268.80
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6634 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.6282)
= $278.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6634 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.5594)
= $259.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.27% per annum.
- AMGN price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.