Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops drugs for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. The company is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.81% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $25.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.95% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 5, 2020
End date: December 21, 2023
a = 5.0292
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1539
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1539) – 1
= 85.06%
November 5, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y379)
= Exp(a + b × X379 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0011 × 547 + 2 × 0.1539)
= Exp(4.7410)
= $114.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y379)
= Exp(a + b × X379 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0011 × 547 – 2 × 0.1539)
= Exp(4.1255)
= $61.90
December 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0011 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.1539)
= Exp(3.4978)
= $33.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0011 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.1539)
= Exp(2.8823)
= $17.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.81% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $25.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: April 12, 2024
a = 4.0686
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1339) – 1
= 70.86%
April 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0686 + -0.0004 × 1,084 + 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.8902)
= $48.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0686 + -0.0004 × 1,084 – 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.3546)
= $28.63
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0686 + -0.0004 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.5951)
= $36.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0686 + -0.0004 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.0594)
= $21.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.95% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.