Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops drugs for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. The company is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.36% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $13.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (1.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.07% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (10.13%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2020
End date: April 24, 2023
a = 4.8061
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1382) – 1
= 73.83%
December 10, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8061 + -0.0014 × 224 + 2 × 0.1382)
= Exp(4.7756)
= $118.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8061 + -0.0014 × 224 – 2 × 0.1382)
= Exp(4.2227)
= $68.22
April 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8061 + -0.0014 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.1382)
= Exp(3.5903)
= $36.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y750)
= Exp(a + b × X750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8061 + -0.0014 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.1382)
= Exp(3.0374)
= $20.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.36% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $13.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (1.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 4.2180
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1320
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1320) – 1
= 69.54%
January 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y434)
= Exp(a + b × X434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2180 + -0.0007 × 629 + 2 × 0.1320)
= Exp(4.0523)
= $57.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y434)
= Exp(a + b × X434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2180 + -0.0007 × 629 – 2 × 0.1320)
= Exp(3.5244)
= $33.93
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2180 + -0.0007 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1320)
= Exp(3.2721)
= $26.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2180 + -0.0007 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1320)
= Exp(2.7442)
= $15.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.07% per annum.
- ARWR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.52 (10.13%).