Stock Price Trends

Morningstar Inc (MORN)

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research and data, catering to a global clientele across North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, the company delivers insightful analysis and tools to investors, enabling them to make informed financial decisions. With a strong emphasis on transparency and integrity, Morningstar's comprehensive offerings include investment management, data analytics, and educational resources, positioning it as a trusted partner in the investment landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.11% per annum.
  • MORN price at the close of January 6, 2026 was $215.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.11% per annum.
  • MORN price at the close of January 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.06 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MORN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: January 6, 2026

a = 7.5284

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0619

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.10%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5284 + -0.0012 × 1,373 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(6.0252)
= $413.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5284 + -0.0012 × 1,373 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(5.7775)
= $322.96

January 6, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5284 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(5.4895)
= $242.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5284 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(5.2419)
= $189.02

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.11% per annum.
  • MORN price at the close of January 6, 2026 was $215.63 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 12, 2025
End date: January 6, 2026

a = 8.9639

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0409

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.78%

May 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9639 + -0.0020 × 1,586 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.8461)
= $345.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,090)
= Exp(a + b × X1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,586 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9639 + -0.0020 × 1,586 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.6824)
= $293.67

January 6, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9639 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.3640)
= $213.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9639 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(5.2003)
= $181.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.11% per annum.
  • MORN price at the close of January 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.06 (0.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.