CME Group Inc (CME)
CME Group Inc. is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, headquartered in Chicago, and encompasses several prominent exchanges including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade, New York Mercantile Exchange, and The Commodity Exchange. It facilitates trading across a diverse array of asset classes, such as agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes, and cryptocurrency futures. CME Group's robust platform and comprehensive risk management services position it as a pivotal player in the global financial markets, appealing to institutional investors seeking exposure to a wide range of derivatives.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.27% per annum.
- CME price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $265.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.11% per annum.
- CME price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 4.6174
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0514
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0514) – 1
= 22.82%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6174 + 0.0006 × 689 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.0997)
= $163.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6174 + 0.0006 × 689 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(4.8942)
= $133.51
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6174 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.7243)
= $306.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6174 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0514)
= Exp(5.5188)
= $249.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.27% per annum.
- CME price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $265.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 6.0570
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0196
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0196) – 1
= 8.16%
April 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0570 + -0.0003 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(5.6671)
= $289.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0570 + -0.0003 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(5.5887)
= $267.38
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0570 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(5.6190)
= $275.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0570 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0196)
= Exp(5.5405)
= $254.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.11% per annum.
- CME price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.