FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS)
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Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.79% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of December 8, 2023 was $443.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.70% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of December 8, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2021
End date: November 3, 2023
a = 6.0703
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0602
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0602) – 1
= 27.22%
September 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,024 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0703 + 0.0000 × 1,024 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(6.1686)
= $477.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y706)
= Exp(a + b × X706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,024 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0703 + 0.0000 × 1,024 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(5.9278)
= $375.32
November 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0703 + 0.0000 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(6.1520)
= $469.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0703 + 0.0000 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0602)
= Exp(5.9112)
= $369.16
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: December 5, 2023
a = 4.8301
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0238
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0238) – 1
= 10.00%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8301 + 0.0007 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.0207)
= $411.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8301 + 0.0007 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(5.9253)
= $374.39
December 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8301 + 0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.1753)
= $480.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8301 + 0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0238)
= Exp(6.0799)
= $437.00