FactSet Research Systems Inc (FDS)
FactSet Research Systems Inc. provides integrated financial information and analytical applications to investment and corporate communities in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.58% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $411.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.90% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.9505
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0619
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.10%
September 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y549)
= Exp(a + b × X549 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9505 + 0.0001 × 796 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(6.1300)
= $459.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y549)
= Exp(a + b × X549 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9505 + 0.0001 × 796 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(5.8823)
= $358.64
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9505 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(6.2020)
= $493.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9505 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(5.9543)
= $385.41
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.58% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $411.66 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.3151
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.42%
December 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3151 + -0.0007 × 1,609 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.2317)
= $508.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3151 + -0.0007 × 1,609 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.1058)
= $448.45
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3151 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.0771)
= $435.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3151 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(5.9512)
= $384.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.90% per annum.
- FDS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.