MSCI Inc (MSCI)
MSCI Inc. (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International and MSCI Barra), is an American finance company headquartered in New York City and serving as a global provider of equity, fixed income, hedge fund stock market indexes, multi-asset portfolio analysis tools and ESG products. It publishes the MSCI BRIC, MSCI World and MSCI EAFE Indexes.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.53% per annum.
- MSCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $538.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.52% per annum.
- MSCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.2416
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1173) – 1
= 59.85%
April 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y433)
= Exp(a + b × X433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2416 + 0.0000 × 629 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(6.4670)
= $643.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y433)
= Exp(a + b × X433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2416 + 0.0000 × 629 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(5.9979)
= $402.59
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2416 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(6.4495)
= $632.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2416 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1173)
= Exp(5.9805)
= $395.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.53% per annum.
- MSCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $538.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.8053
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0773
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.25%
April 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,000 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8053 + 0.0003 × 1,000 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(6.2340)
= $509.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,000 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8053 + 0.0003 × 1,000 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(5.9247)
= $374.18
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8053 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(6.4605)
= $639.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8053 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(6.1511)
= $469.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.52% per annum.
- MSCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.