Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE)
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is an American Fortune 500 company formed in 2000 that operates global exchanges, clearing houses and provides mortgage technology, data and listing services. The company owns exchanges for financial and commodity markets, and operates regulated exchanges and marketplaces.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.68% per annum.
- ICE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $138.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.41% per annum.
- ICE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.49 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ICE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 3.7944
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.90%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7944 + 0.0006 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.6219)
= $101.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7944 + 0.0006 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.4321)
= $84.11
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7944 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.9918)
= $147.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7944 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.8020)
= $121.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.68% per annum.
- ICE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $138.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 5.7789
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.49%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7789 + -0.0005 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.9650)
= $143.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7789 + -0.0005 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.8928)
= $133.32
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7789 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.9193)
= $136.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7789 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.8471)
= $127.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.41% per annum.
- ICE price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.49 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.