Stock Price Trends

Moodys Corporation (MCO)

Moody's Corporation (MCO) is a leading global provider of credit ratings, research, risk analysis, and financial information, holding a significant position in the financial services sector. The company operates through two primary segments: Moody's Investors Service, which delivers credit ratings and research for various debt instruments and issuers, and Moody's Analytics, which offers a suite of software solutions and data to support financial management and decision-making. With its robust analytical capabilities and deep market insights, Moody's is positioned to serve a diverse clientele, including governments, corporations, and financial institutions worldwide, making it a key player in the evolving landscape of financial services and risk management.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.75% per annum.
  • MCO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $486.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $48.50 (9.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.80% per annum.
  • MCO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 1, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 5.1442

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0620

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.14%

June 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1442 + 0.0007 × 533 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.6372)
= $280.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1442 + 0.0007 × 533 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(5.3893)
= $219.05

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1442 + 0.0007 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(6.3358)
= $564.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1442 + 0.0007 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(6.0879)
= $440.50

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.75% per annum.
  • MCO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $486.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $48.50 (9.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 5.9654

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0435

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.80%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.02%

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9654 + 0.0001 × 1,304 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(6.2200)
= $502.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y896)
= Exp(a + b × X896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9654 + 0.0001 × 1,304 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(6.0458)
= $422.35

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9654 + 0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(6.2867)
= $537.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9654 + 0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(6.1125)
= $451.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.80% per annum.
  • MCO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.