Stock Price Trends

MarketAxess Holdings Inc (MKTX)

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) is a leading international financial technology firm specializing in the electronic trading of fixed-income securities, with a particular focus on the institutional credit markets. The company operates a robust electronic trading platform that facilitates transparent and efficient trade execution for its clients, while also offering comprehensive market data analytics and post-trade services. With a commitment to innovation and regulatory compliance, MarketAxess plays a pivotal role in enhancing market liquidity and efficiency, making it an important partner for institutional investors navigating the complex fixed-income landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.32% per annum.
  • MKTX price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $178.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $408.66 (69.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.06% per annum.
  • MKTX price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MKTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: May 12, 2023

a = 5.0531

b = 0.0008

s = 0.1127

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 36.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1127) – 1
= 56.93%

April 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0531 + 0.0008 × 455 + 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(5.6647)
= $288.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0531 + 0.0008 × 455 – 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(5.2141)
= $183.84

May 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0531 + 0.0008 × 857 + 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(6.0059)
= $405.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y592)
= Exp(a + b × X592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0531 + 0.0008 × 857 – 2 × 0.1127)
= Exp(5.5553)
= $258.61

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.32% per annum.
  • MKTX price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $178.55 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $408.66 (69.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: January 2, 2026

a = 5.7810

b = -0.0003

s = 0.1332

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1332) – 1
= 70.35%

April 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7810 + -0.0003 × 455 + 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(5.9152)
= $370.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7810 + -0.0003 × 455 – 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(5.3825)
= $217.57

January 2, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7810 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(5.5177)
= $249.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7810 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1332)
= Exp(4.9851)
= $146.21

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.06% per annum.
  • MKTX price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.