Cboe Global Markets Inc (CBOE)
Cboe Global Markets is an American company that owns the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the stock exchange operator BATS Global Markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.03% per annum.
- CBOE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $186.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.86% per annum.
- CBOE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.02 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBOE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: May 28, 2024
a = 3.8284
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.19%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8284 + 0.0008 × 998 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.7252)
= $112.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8284 + 0.0008 × 998 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.5331)
= $93.04
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8284 + 0.0008 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.3406)
= $208.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8284 + 0.0008 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.1485)
= $172.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.03% per annum.
- CBOE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $186.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 6.1196
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0211
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0211) – 1
= 8.82%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1196 + -0.0005 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.2822)
= $196.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1196 + -0.0005 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.1976)
= $180.84
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1196 + -0.0005 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.1840)
= $178.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1196 + -0.0005 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(5.0995)
= $163.94
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.86% per annum.
- CBOE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $9.02 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.