Retail Opportunity Investments (ROIC)
Retail Opportunity Investments Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.05% per annum.
- ROIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.39% per annum.
- ROIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ROIC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.0465
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0711
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.89%
May 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0465 + -0.0003 × 665 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(2.9753)
= $19.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0465 + -0.0003 × 665 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(2.6909)
= $14.75
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0465 + -0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(2.6075)
= $13.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0465 + -0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(2.3232)
= $10.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.05% per annum.
- ROIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.5148
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0564
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0564) – 1
= 25.33%
March 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5148 + 0.0000 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.6419)
= $14.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y909)
= Exp(a + b × X909 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5148 + 0.0000 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.4161)
= $11.20
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5148 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.6473)
= $14.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5148 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0564)
= Exp(2.4215)
= $11.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.39% per annum.
- ROIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.