Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)
Kimco Realty Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in shopping centers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.17% per annum.
- KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
- KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KIM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.1074
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0705
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0705) – 1
= 32.56%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 741 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(3.1619)
= $23.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 741 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.8800)
= $17.81
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(3.0371)
= $20.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.7552)
= $15.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.17% per annum.
- KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.5703
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0583
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0583) – 1
= 26.27%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.9779)
= $19.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.7447)
= $15.56
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(3.0886)
= $21.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.8553)
= $17.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
- KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.