Stock Price Trends

Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)

Kimco Realty Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in shopping centers.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.17% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KIM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 3.1074

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0705

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0705) – 1
= 32.56%

August 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 741 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(3.1619)
= $23.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y511)
= Exp(a + b × X511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 741 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.8800)
= $17.81

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(3.0371)
= $20.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1074 + -0.0001 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(2.7552)
= $15.72

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.17% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $20.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 2.5703

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0583

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0583) – 1
= 26.27%

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.9779)
= $19.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.7447)
= $15.56

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(3.0886)
= $21.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5703 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.8553)
= $17.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
  • KIM price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.