Brixmor Property (BRX)
Brixmor (NYSE: BRX) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a high-quality national portfolio of outdoor shopping centers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.77% per annum.
- BRX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $24.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.24 (0.98%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.93% per annum.
- BRX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BRX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 2.9744
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0646
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0646) – 1
= 29.51%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9744 + 0.0000 × 634 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(3.1341)
= $22.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9744 + 0.0000 × 634 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(2.8756)
= $17.74
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9744 + 0.0000 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(3.1906)
= $24.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9744 + 0.0000 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0646)
= Exp(2.9320)
= $18.77
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.77% per annum.
- BRX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $24.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.24 (0.98%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.5267
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.41%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5267 + 0.0003 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.0423)
= $20.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5267 + 0.0003 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(2.8903)
= $18.00
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5267 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.2102)
= $24.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5267 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(3.0582)
= $21.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.93% per annum.
- BRX price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.