Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust that invests in shopping centers in the Northeastern United States, the Mid-Atlantic states, California, and South Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.89% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $102.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.95 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.96% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 1, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 4.9091
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0674
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -8.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0674) – 1
= 30.95%
June 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9091 + -0.0003 × 743 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.8544)
= $128.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y512)
= Exp(a + b × X512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9091 + -0.0003 × 743 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.5847)
= $97.98
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9091 + -0.0003 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.6218)
= $101.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9091 + -0.0003 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.3521)
= $77.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.89% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $102.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.95 (5.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.0557
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.65%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0557 + 0.0003 × 1,390 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.5755)
= $97.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y959)
= Exp(a + b × X959 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,390 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0557 + 0.0003 × 1,390 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.3961)
= $81.13
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0557 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.7098)
= $111.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0557 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(4.5304)
= $92.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.96% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.