Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
Federal Realty Investment Trust is a real estate investment trust that invests in shopping centers in the Northeastern United States, the Mid-Atlantic states, California, and South Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.61% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $94.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.08 (5.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.55% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.98 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 4.7428
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0704
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.52%
April 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0002 × 356 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.8064)
= $122.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0002 × 356 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.5249)
= $92.28
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0002 × 1,321 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.5971)
= $99.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7428 + -0.0002 × 1,321 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.3155)
= $74.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.61% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $94.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.08 (5.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: March 10, 2025
a = 4.2738
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0651
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0651) – 1
= 29.74%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2738 + 0.0002 × 770 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.5770)
= $97.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y532)
= Exp(a + b × X532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2738 + 0.0002 × 770 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.3167)
= $74.94
March 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2738 + 0.0002 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.8028)
= $121.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2738 + 0.0002 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.5424)
= $93.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.55% per annum.
- FRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.98 (1.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.