Macerich Company (MAC)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.17% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.69% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.4626
b = 0.0013
s = 0.1059
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1059) – 1
= 52.73%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4626 + 0.0013 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.1059)
= Exp(2.4042)
= $11.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4626 + 0.0013 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.1059)
= Exp(1.9807)
= $7.25
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4626 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1059)
= Exp(3.0620)
= $21.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4626 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1059)
= Exp(2.6385)
= $13.99
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 61.17% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $15.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.6169
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0431
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0431) – 1
= 18.81%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + -0.0005 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(2.8821)
= $17.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + -0.0005 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(2.7097)
= $15.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(2.7895)
= $16.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6169 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0431)
= Exp(2.6172)
= $13.70
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.69% per annum.
- MAC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.