Stock Price Trends

Macerich Company (MAC)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.01% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $18.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (6.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.88% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 1.5470

b = 0.0009

s = 0.1235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1235) – 1
= 63.86%

June 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5470 + 0.0009 × 521 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.2743)
= $9.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5470 + 0.0009 × 521 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(1.7804)
= $5.93

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5470 + 0.0009 × 1,522 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(3.1972)
= $24.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5470 + 0.0009 × 1,522 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.7033)
= $14.93

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.01% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 2, 2026 was $18.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.20 (6.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: January 2, 2026

a = 2.4135

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0989

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0989) – 1
= 48.54%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4135 + 0.0003 × 1,073 + 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(2.8884)
= $17.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y741)
= Exp(a + b × X741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4135 + 0.0003 × 1,073 – 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(2.4928)
= $12.09

January 2, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4135 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(3.0824)
= $21.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4135 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0989)
= Exp(2.6867)
= $14.68

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.88% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.