Stock Price Trends

Macerich Company (MAC)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.01% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $18.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.24 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.05% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: March 6, 2025

a = 1.5608

b = 0.0009

s = 0.1235

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 40.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1235) – 1
= 63.86%

June 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 506 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5608 + 0.0009 × 506 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.2743)
= $9.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 506 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5608 + 0.0009 × 506 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(1.7804)
= $5.93

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5608 + 0.0009 × 1,507 + 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(3.1972)
= $24.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,037)
= Exp(a + b × X1,037 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5608 + 0.0009 × 1,507 – 2 × 0.1235)
= Exp(2.7033)
= $14.93

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 40.01% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $18.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.24 (6.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: January 16, 2026

a = 2.4121

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0981

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0981) – 1
= 48.02%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0003 × 1,058 + 2 × 0.0981)
= Exp(2.8857)
= $17.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y731)
= Exp(a + b × X731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,058 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0003 × 1,058 – 2 × 0.0981)
= Exp(2.4935)
= $12.10

January 16, 2026 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0981)
= Exp(3.0863)
= $21.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4121 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0981)
= Exp(2.6941)
= $14.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.05% per annum.
  • MAC price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.