Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)
Simon Property Group, Inc. is a real estate investment trust that invests in shopping malls, outlet centers, and community/lifestyle centers. It is the largest owner of shopping malls in the United States and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.41% per annum.
- SPG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $149.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.41% per annum.
- SPG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1911
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0648
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0648) – 1
= 29.58%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1911 + 0.0010 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(4.6829)
= $108.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1911 + 0.0010 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(4.4238)
= $83.41
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1911 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(5.1938)
= $180.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1911 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0648)
= Exp(4.9346)
= $139.02
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.41% per annum.
- SPG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $149.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.3431
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0269
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0269) – 1
= 11.36%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3431 + 0.0004 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(4.9876)
= $146.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3431 + 0.0004 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(4.8800)
= $131.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3431 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(5.0706)
= $159.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3431 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0269)
= Exp(4.9630)
= $143.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.41% per annum.
- SPG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.