Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc (SKT)
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc. (NYSE: SKT) is a leading operator of luxury outdoor outlet shopping centers that owns or has an ownership interest in a portfolio of 38 centers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.22% per annum.
- SKT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $27.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.65 (5.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.63% per annum.
- SKT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SKT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: April 9, 2024
a = 1.3598
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.79%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3598 + 0.0012 × 1,050 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(2.7019)
= $14.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3598 + 0.0012 × 1,050 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(2.4725)
= $11.85
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3598 + 0.0012 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.4839)
= $32.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3598 + 0.0012 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(3.2545)
= $25.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.22% per annum.
- SKT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $27.71 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.65 (5.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1904
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.88%
December 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1904 + 0.0001 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(3.3685)
= $29.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1904 + 0.0001 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(3.2385)
= $25.50
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1904 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(3.3852)
= $29.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1904 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(3.2551)
= $25.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.63% per annum.
- SKT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.